Saquon Barkley
Week 8 projection
10.3
Half PPR, Sleeper
Week 8 matchup
vs WAS · Tough · #27/32
Rest of season projection
118
Half PPR, Sleeper · RB19, #73 overall
Trade value
3,243
Redraft, RB18 · Dynasty 2,812
Trade value is FantasyCalc's 12-team, 1-QB, half PPR market. Projections and matchups are this week's, from Sleeper.
Breakout Lab
Built from his 2025 season and draft profile. Games played in 2026 don't change it.
He has already broken out. His first top-24 season by points per game was 2018 (best finish: 1st at RB, 2024). A breakout is defined as a first such season, so the grade above is not a forecast for him. Read it as how strongly his profile matches the one breakouts have.
▾
Breakout checklist
3/5 must-haves · 0/4 boosters
- Must-haves 3/5
- Boosters 0/4
Requirements: the must-haves
Age 24 or younger29.6 vs <=242025RB production peaks early; younger backs carry more tread and upside. · 12.6% break out with it vs 8.1% without
Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)2 vs <=1002025Draft capital predicts workload share and goal-line trust. · 17.7% break out with it vs 8.1% without
Touches ≥ 10 / game19.8 vs >=102025Volume is king for RB scoring, and 10 touches a game is where the breakout rate jumps. · 25.2% break out with it vs 5.5% without
Yards per carry ≥ 4.34.1 vs >=4.32025Efficiency at/above league average keeps a back in the game-plan. · 10.4% break out with it vs 9.4% without
Depth chart: the real RB1 entering the season1 vs >=12026A back who isn't even his own team's projected lead back entering the season starts from behind on touches no matter what last season's stats say: this is forward-looking projected-role context none of this rule set's other, backward-looking production stats can see. · 12% break out with it vs 7.4% without
Boosters: what raises the ceiling
Passing-down role: ≥ 3.5 targets / game3.1 vs >=3.52025Receiving work is the PPR difference-maker and insulates volume in game scripts. · 17.7% break out with it vs 8.9% without
Goal-line role: ≥ 50% of team RZ carries47.1 vs >=502025Goal-line work is what drives RB touchdown totals. · 37% break out with it vs 8.8% without
Pass protection: line top-1016 vs <=102025Pass protection, not run blocking, is the half of line play that shows up in a back's scoring: it keeps him on the field for passing downs and keeps the offense ahead of the chains. · 11.5% break out with it vs 9% without
Forced-missed-tackle rate ≥ 8.5%6.3 vs >=8.52025Broken tackles measure yardage a back creates independent of blocking. · 9.2% break out with it vs 8.3% without
▾
Advanced charting stats
Route participation %7320256th of 65 RBsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for: the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks: nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Targets per route run0.11202540th of 55 RBsSeparates volume from opportunity: are targets earned per route, or just a product of snaps?Source: Targets ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Yards per route run0.61202538th of 55 RBsThe single most stable WR efficiency stat; elite breakouts cross ~2.0.Source: Receiving yards ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Average depth of target0.60202515th of 64 RBsHow far downfield the targets come: role definition (deep vs underneath).Source: Mean air yards per target: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Air-yards share0.70202513th of 64 RBsShare of the team's downfield passing intent aimed at this player.Source: His air yards ÷ his team's air yards: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate41.5202520th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel: expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel: nflverse participation, 2025
Zone coverage rate faced64.1202527th of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced: nflverse participation, 2025
Red-zone target share12.5202512th of 64 RBsThe touchdown-equity signal a breakout usually needs.Source: Targets inside the 20 ÷ team red-zone targets: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Offensive line rank22202522nd of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season
Pass protection rank16202516th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season
Line rank, 2026 projected220262nd of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best): opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections: a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.07202514th of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets37.320256th of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster: nflverse
▾
Season by season
| Season | Touches/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20.6 | 68.7 | 4.3 | 20 | 10 |
| 2024 | 23.6 | 125.3 | 2.7 | 17.4 | 15 |
| 2025 | 19.8 | 71.3 | 3.1 | 17.1 | 9 |