Breakout Rules
5,096 player-seasons, 2005–2026330 breakoutsBreakout = first top-24 PPG season (top-12 QB/TE), checked the season before
QBAge 25 or youngerrequirement
2.4×
more likely to break out with it
- Has it 28.8%
- Doesn't 11.8%
66 of 159 QB seasons met it, 2005–2024
QBFirst-round pedigree (pick ≤ 32)booster
1.3×
more likely to break out with it
- Has it 21.5%
- Doesn't 16.7%
93 of 141 QB seasons met it, 2005–2024
QBRushing upside: ≥ 20 rush yds/gamerequirement
3.0×
more likely to break out with it
- Has it 41.4%
- Doesn't 13.8%
29 of 159 QB seasons met it, 2005–2024
QBLine projected to improve: top-10 preseason rankbooster
1.8×
more likely to break out with it
- Has it 27.3%
- Doesn't 14.8%
Small sample: only 11 seasons met this.
11 of 65 QB seasons met it, 2021–2025
QBPass protection: line top-10booster
1.8×
more likely to break out with it
- Has it 28.9%
- Doesn't 15.7%
38 of 159 QB seasons met it, 2005–2024
QBPass volume: ≥ 33 attempts/gamerequirement
1.6×
more likely to break out with it
- Has it 25.5%
- Doesn't 16.1%
47 of 159 QB seasons met it, 2005–2024
