Matthew Golden
Week 8 projection
11.5
Half PPR, Sleeper
Week 8 matchup
vs CAR · Tough · #29/32
Rest of season projection
118
Half PPR, Sleeper · WR21, #74 overall
Trade value
3,128
Redraft, WR19 · Dynasty 4,016
Trade value is FantasyCalc's 12-team, 1-QB, half PPR market. Projections and matchups are this week's, from Sleeper.
Breakout Lab
Built from his 2025 season and draft profile. Games played in 2026 don't change it.
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Breakout checklist
3/7 must-haves · 3/7 boosters
- Must-haves 3/7
- Boosters 3/7
Requirements: the must-haves
Breakout age: 24 or younger23.1 vs <=242025WR breakouts cluster by age 24; the fantasy age curve peaks early and falls fast after 27. · 7.3% break out with it vs 2.5% without
In the year-2 or year-3 window2 vs <=3202677.9% of WR breakouts happen by Year 3; Year 2 has the highest rate (~15%). · 6.4% break out with it vs 2.3% without
Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)23 vs <=1002025Draft pedigree predicts sustained opportunity and coaching trust. · 7.6% break out with it vs 1.7% without
Prior target share ≥ 20%7.8 vs >=202025~20% share is the rough floor for weekly WR2+ value. · 16% break out with it vs 2.5% without
Route participation ≥ 75%48.5 vs >=752025You can't break out off the field: on the field for 75%+ of dropbacks means full-time. · 9.6% break out with it vs 1.9% without
Yards per route run ≥ 1.81.2 vs >=1.82025YPRR is the most stable WR efficiency stat, and 1.8 separates the field. · 13.4% break out with it vs 2.1% without
Depth chart: a top-2 receiver entering the season0 vs >=12026A WR3 or worse entering the season is still fighting for targets, not banked on for them: same forward-looking role signal as the RB depth rule, cut at top-2 rather than top-1 since a real WR2 is still a startable role. · 3.3% break out with it vs 2.9% without
Boosters: what raises the ceiling
Target share trending upneed 2+ seasonsA rising share signals an earned, growing role rather than noise.
Downfield role: aDOT ≥ 1112.7 vs >=112025A downfield role raises the weekly ceiling through big plays. · 4.9% break out with it vs 3.4% without
Air-yards share ≥ 25%13.9 vs >=252025Share of the team's downfield passing intent = who the offense actually throws to. · 17% break out with it vs 2.4% without
Red-zone target share ≥ 18%2.7 vs >=182025TD equity is what converts yards into startable fantasy scoring. · 12.3% break out with it vs 3.2% without
Average-or-better QB play0.3 vs >=02025WR production is hard-capped by quarterback play.
2-WR-set concentration (heavy personnel funnels targets)51.4 vs >=352025Heavy 12/21 personnel cuts perimeter competition and funnels target share to the clear No.1/2 WR (needs role clarity).
Pass-friendly scheme (PROE ≥ 0)-3.5 vs >=02025Pass rate over expectation lifts every pass-catcher's volume.
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Advanced charting stats
Route participation %48.5202553rd of 87 WRsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for: the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks: nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Targets per route run0.15202565th of 79 WRsSeparates volume from opportunity: are targets earned per route, or just a product of snaps?Source: Targets ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Yards per route run1.24202557th of 79 WRsThe single most stable WR efficiency stat; elite breakouts cross ~2.0.Source: Receiving yards ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Average depth of target12.7202523rd of 84 WRsHow far downfield the targets come: role definition (deep vs underneath).Source: Mean air yards per target: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Air-yards share13.9202556th of 84 WRsShare of the team's downfield passing intent aimed at this player.Source: His air yards ÷ his team's air yards: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate51.4202510th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel: expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel: nflverse participation, 2025
Zone coverage rate faced66.7202519th of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced: nflverse participation, 2025
Red-zone target share2.70202577th of 84 WRsThe touchdown-equity signal a breakout usually needs.Source: Targets inside the 20 ÷ team red-zone targets: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Offensive line rank18202518th of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season
Pass protection rank14202514th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season
Line rank, 2026 projected29202629th of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best): opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections: a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.2620252nd of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets37.420255th of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster: nflverse
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Season by season
| Season | Targets/g | Target share | Rec yds/g | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.1 | 7.8% | 25.8 | 0 |