Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow

QBCINAge 30Bye week 6QB1

Week 8 projection
21.4
Half PPR, Sleeper
Week 8 matchup
vs TEN · Tough · #23/32
Rest of season projection
210
Half PPR, Sleeper · QB6, #8 overall
Trade value
3,193
Redraft, QB3 · Dynasty 3,565

Trade value is FantasyCalc's 12-team, 1-QB, half PPR market. Projections and matchups are this week's, from Sleeper.

REDRAFT TRADE VALUE OVER TIME
3,023+507 (+20.2%)
Since Oct 22
Oct 22
SCHEME MATCHUP · VS TEN

How Joe Burrow scores against each defensive look

His points per play in each look, and how often TEN shows it. Green means TEN's mix helps him and red means it hurts, against an average defense.

TEN blitzes 23% of pass plays, league 32%
Passinghalf PPR points per attempt, 2025 seasonSlightly hurts him−4%
TEN shows
He scores per attempt
LookTEN showsLeagueEffect
Man coverage86 pass attempts26%31%−3%
Zone coverage190 pass attempts74%69%−1%

At TEN's mix his rates work out to 0.45 pts per attempt, against 0.47 at the league's mix.

Coverage is 2025, from nflverse participation data published after the season. Boxes and blitzes are this season's, from FTN charting.

Breakout Lab

Built from his 2025 season and draft profile. Games played in 2026 don't change it.

He has already broken out. His first top-12 season by points per game was 2021 (best finish: 3rd at QB, 2024). A breakout is defined as a first such season, so the grade above is not a forecast for him. Read it as how strongly his profile matches the one breakouts have.
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Breakout checklist

0/3 must-haves · 4/7 boosters
  • Must-haves 0/3
  • Boosters 4/7
Requirements: the must-haves
✗Rushing upside: ≥ 20 rush yds/game5.1 vs >=202025Designed QB rushing is the single biggest fantasy-QB differentiator; it raises both floor and ceiling. · 41.4% break out with it vs 13.8% without
✗Pass volume: ≥ 33 attempts/game32.4 vs >=332025Attempts compound into counting stats and TD chances. · 25.5% break out with it vs 16.1% without
✗Age 25 or younger29.7 vs <=252025The year-2/3 QB leap is real; younger arms have room to grow. · 28.8% break out with it vs 11.8% without
Boosters: what raises the ceiling
✓First-round pedigree (pick ≤ 32)1 vs <=322025Draft capital buys job security and a longer runway. · 21.5% break out with it vs 16.7% without
✓Pass-friendly / mobile-QB scheme (PROE ≥ 0)2.8 vs >=02025A scheme that throws and uses the QB's legs multiplies output.
✓Two-plus reliable pass-catchers2 vs >=22025A QB can't break out without people to throw to. Reliable means a real role and a productive one, so a spread-out offense counts as well as one built around two stars.
✗Downfield aggressiveness: average throw ≥ 7.5 yards7.2 vs >=7.52025Pushing the ball downfield raises yardage and big-play scoring.
✗Goal-line rushing role: 2+ carries inside the 51 vs >=22025Designed short-yardage runs turn into rushing TDs.
✓Pass protection: line top-1010 vs <=102025Time in the pocket is what a line actually gives a quarterback. Sacks end drives, cost yardage, and cap the volume everything else is built on. · 28.9% break out with it vs 15.7% without
✗Line projected to improve: top-10 preseason rank24 vs <=102026A line that got hurt or was overhauled does not show up in last season's tape. This is the only scored rule built on outside analysts' opinion instead of something this site measured, which is why it carries half the weight of the measured pass-protection rule above. · 27.3% break out with it vs 14.8% without
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Advanced charting stats

Route participation %41.4202528th of 36 QBsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for: the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks: nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Targets per route run0.0020258th of 31 QBsSeparates volume from opportunity: are targets earned per route, or just a product of snaps?Source: Targets ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Yards per route run0.0020255th of 31 QBsThe single most stable WR efficiency stat; elite breakouts cross ~2.0.Source: Receiving yards ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate39.4202524th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel: expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel: nflverse participation, 2025
Zone coverage rate faced65.6202522nd of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced: nflverse participation, 2025
Offensive line rank520255th of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season
Pass protection rank10202510th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season
Line rank, 2026 projected24202624th of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best): opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections: a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)-0.02202525th of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets11.3202528th of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster: nflverse
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Season by season

SeasonCarries/gRush yds/g
20233.18.8
20242.511.8
20251.85.1