Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Week 8 projection
21.4
Half PPR, Sleeper
Week 8 matchup
vs CHI · Neutral · #12/32
Rest of season projection
209
Half PPR, Sleeper · WR1, #9 overall
Trade value
10,127
Redraft, WR1 · Dynasty 10,016
Trade value is FantasyCalc's 12-team, 1-QB, half PPR market. Projections and matchups are this week's, from Sleeper.
Breakout Lab
Built from his 2025 season and draft profile. Games played in 2026 don't change it.
He has already broken out. His first top-24 season by points per game was 2024 (best finish: 2nd at WR, 2025). A breakout is defined as a first such season, so the grade above is not a forecast for him. Read it as how strongly his profile matches the one breakouts have.
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Breakout checklist
5/7 must-haves · 6/7 boosters
- Must-haves 5/7
- Boosters 6/7
Requirements: the must-haves
Breakout age: 24 or younger24.6 vs <=242025WR breakouts cluster by age 24; the fantasy age curve peaks early and falls fast after 27. · 7.3% break out with it vs 2.5% without
In the year-2 or year-3 window4 vs <=3202677.9% of WR breakouts happen by Year 3; Year 2 has the highest rate (~15%). · 6.4% break out with it vs 2.3% without
Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)20 vs <=1002025Draft pedigree predicts sustained opportunity and coaching trust. · 7.6% break out with it vs 1.7% without
Prior target share ≥ 20%27 vs >=202025~20% share is the rough floor for weekly WR2+ value. · 16% break out with it vs 2.5% without
Route participation ≥ 75%92.4 vs >=752025You can't break out off the field: on the field for 75%+ of dropbacks means full-time. · 9.6% break out with it vs 1.9% without
Yards per route run ≥ 1.83.1 vs >=1.82025YPRR is the most stable WR efficiency stat, and 1.8 separates the field. · 13.4% break out with it vs 2.1% without
Depth chart: a top-2 receiver entering the season1 vs >=12026A WR3 or worse entering the season is still fighting for targets, not banked on for them: same forward-looking role signal as the RB depth rule, cut at top-2 rather than top-1 since a real WR2 is still a startable role. · 3.3% break out with it vs 2.9% without
Boosters: what raises the ceiling
Target share trending up21.1 → 27.02024→2025A rising share signals an earned, growing role rather than noise.
Downfield role: aDOT ≥ 1111.1 vs >=112025A downfield role raises the weekly ceiling through big plays. · 4.9% break out with it vs 3.4% without
Air-yards share ≥ 25%47 vs >=252025Share of the team's downfield passing intent = who the offense actually throws to. · 17% break out with it vs 2.4% without
Red-zone target share ≥ 18%28.4 vs >=182025TD equity is what converts yards into startable fantasy scoring. · 12.3% break out with it vs 3.2% without
Average-or-better QB play0.1 vs >=02025WR production is hard-capped by quarterback play.
2-WR-set concentration (heavy personnel funnels targets)57.1 vs >=352025Heavy 12/21 personnel cuts perimeter competition and funnels target share to the clear No.1/2 WR (needs role clarity).
Pass-friendly scheme (PROE ≥ 0)-5.9 vs >=02025Pass rate over expectation lifts every pass-catcher's volume.
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Advanced charting stats
Route participation %92.420256th of 87 WRsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for: the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks: nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Targets per route run0.2820258th of 79 WRsSeparates volume from opportunity: are targets earned per route, or just a product of snaps?Source: Targets ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Yards per route run3.1320251st of 79 WRsThe single most stable WR efficiency stat; elite breakouts cross ~2.0.Source: Receiving yards ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Average depth of target11.1202550th of 84 WRsHow far downfield the targets come: role definition (deep vs underneath).Source: Mean air yards per target: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Air-yards share4720251st of 84 WRsShare of the team's downfield passing intent aimed at this player.Source: His air yards ÷ his team's air yards: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate57.120255th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel: expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel: nflverse participation, 2025
Zone coverage rate faced72.520255th of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced: nflverse participation, 2025
Red-zone target share28.420253rd of 84 WRsThe touchdown-equity signal a breakout usually needs.Source: Targets inside the 20 ÷ team red-zone targets: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
YAC over expected0.80202520th of 62 WRsPlaymaking after the catch beyond what the target's location predicts.Source: Yards after catch minus expected YAC: Next Gen Stats (nflverse), 2025
Offensive line rank19202519th of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season
Pass protection rank11202511th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season
Line rank, 2026 projected11202611th of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best): opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections: a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.1220258th of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets9.50202529th of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster: nflverse
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Season by season
| Season | Targets/g | Target share | Rec yds/g | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5.5 | 15.2% | 36.9 | 4 |
| 2024 | 8.1 | 21.1% | 66.5 | 6 |
| 2025 | 9.6 | 27% | 105.5 | 10 |