Drake Maye
Week 8 projection
21.8
Half PPR, Sleeper
Week 8 matchup
vs MIA · Favorable · #7/32
Rest of season projection
208
Half PPR, Sleeper · QB7, #10 overall
Trade value
2,992
Redraft, QB4 · Dynasty 3,784
Trade value is FantasyCalc's 12-team, 1-QB, half PPR market. Projections and matchups are this week's, from Sleeper.
Breakout Lab
Built from his 2025 season and draft profile. Games played in 2026 don't change it.
He has already broken out. His first top-12 season by points per game was 2025 (best finish: 2nd at QB, 2025). A breakout is defined as a first such season, so the grade above is not a forecast for him. Read it as how strongly his profile matches the one breakouts have.
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Breakout checklist
2/3 must-haves · 5/7 boosters
- Must-haves 2/3
- Boosters 5/7
Requirements: the must-haves
Rushing upside: ≥ 20 rush yds/game26.5 vs >=202025Designed QB rushing is the single biggest fantasy-QB differentiator; it raises both floor and ceiling. · 41.4% break out with it vs 13.8% without
Pass volume: ≥ 33 attempts/game28.9 vs >=332025Attempts compound into counting stats and TD chances. · 25.5% break out with it vs 16.1% without
Age 25 or younger24 vs <=252025The year-2/3 QB leap is real; younger arms have room to grow. · 28.8% break out with it vs 11.8% without
Boosters: what raises the ceiling
First-round pedigree (pick ≤ 32)3 vs <=322025Draft capital buys job security and a longer runway. · 21.5% break out with it vs 16.7% without
Pass-friendly / mobile-QB scheme (PROE ≥ 0)1.6 vs >=02025A scheme that throws and uses the QB's legs multiplies output.
Two-plus reliable pass-catchers3 vs >=22025A QB can't break out without people to throw to. Reliable means a real role and a productive one, so a spread-out offense counts as well as one built around two stars.
Downfield aggressiveness: average throw ≥ 7.5 yards9.4 vs >=7.52025Pushing the ball downfield raises yardage and big-play scoring.
Goal-line rushing role: 2+ carries inside the 53 vs >=22025Designed short-yardage runs turn into rushing TDs.
Pass protection: line top-1022 vs <=102025Time in the pocket is what a line actually gives a quarterback. Sacks end drives, cost yardage, and cap the volume everything else is built on. · 28.9% break out with it vs 15.7% without
Line projected to improve: top-10 preseason rank13 vs <=102026A line that got hurt or was overhauled does not show up in last season's tape. This is the only scored rule built on outside analysts' opinion instead of something this site measured, which is why it carries half the weight of the measured pass-protection rule above. · 27.3% break out with it vs 14.8% without
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Advanced charting stats
Route participation %98.420256th of 36 QBsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for: the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks: nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Targets per route run0.0020254th of 31 QBsSeparates volume from opportunity: are targets earned per route, or just a product of snaps?Source: Targets ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Yards per route run0.0020254th of 31 QBsThe single most stable WR efficiency stat; elite breakouts cross ~2.0.Source: Receiving yards ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Average depth of target2.0020251st of 5 QBsHow far downfield the targets come: role definition (deep vs underneath).Source: Mean air yards per target: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Air-yards share0.1020251st of 5 QBsShare of the team's downfield passing intent aimed at this player.Source: His air yards ÷ his team's air yards: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate5220259th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel: expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel: nflverse participation, 2025
Zone coverage rate faced65.7202521st of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced: nflverse participation, 2025
Red-zone target share0.0020253rd of 5 QBsThe touchdown-equity signal a breakout usually needs.Source: Targets inside the 20 ÷ team red-zone targets: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Offensive line rank27202527th of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season
Pass protection rank22202522nd of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season
Line rank, 2026 projected13202613th of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best): opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections: a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.3120251st of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets37.320257th of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster: nflverse
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Season by season
| Season | Carries/g | Rush yds/g |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4.2 | 32.4 |
| 2025 | 6.1 | 26.5 |