Colston Loveland
Week 8 projection
7.8
Half PPR, Sleeper
Week 8 matchup
vs SEA · Tough · #28/32
Rest of season projection
87
Half PPR, Sleeper · TE15, #129 overall
Trade value
2,379
Redraft, TE4 · Dynasty 3,669
Trade value is FantasyCalc's 12-team, 1-QB, half PPR market. Projections and matchups are this week's, from Sleeper.
Breakout Lab
Built from his 2025 season and draft profile. Games played in 2026 don't change it.
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Breakout checklist
3/5 must-haves · 3/4 boosters
- Must-haves 3/5
- Boosters 3/4
Requirements: the must-haves
Year-3 (or later) breakout window2 vs >=32026TEs develop late: the year-3 leap is the classic TE breakout timing. · 7.8% break out with it vs 17.4% without
Age 26 or younger22.4 vs <=262025Still ascending; late-blooming but not aged out. · 13.2% break out with it vs 5.2% without
Target share ≥ 15%11.8 vs >=152025A 15%+ share is the usage floor for a startable TE1. · 26.7% break out with it vs 7.3% without
Route participation ≥ 55%65.3 vs >=552025A TE who runs routes instead of blocking is the prerequisite. Almost no tight end reaches a WR-level 75%, so 55% of dropbacks is the line where the breakout rate jumps. · 25.9% break out with it vs 4.7% without
Depth chart: the real TE1 entering the season1 vs >=12026Same signal as the RB depth rule: a TE2 entering the season is a blocker/situational piece until an injury or a real camp battle changes that, which last season's stats alone can't show. · 9.2% break out with it vs 7.1% without
Boosters: what raises the ceiling
Red-zone target share ≥ 18%22.4 vs >=182025TEs live on touchdowns; red-zone looks drive TE1 seasons. · 27.1% break out with it vs 8% without
Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)10 vs <=1002025Pedigree predicts the coaching investment a TE breakout needs. · 17.7% break out with it vs 6.1% without
Flex/seam role: aDOT ≥ 89.9 vs >=82025A move TE used down the seam beats an in-line blocker for fantasy. · 15.6% break out with it vs 7.5% without
Pass protection: line top-1013 vs <=102025A tight end who stays in to block does not run routes. Lines that hold up let him release, and give the quarterback time for the intermediate throws he lives on. · 12.6% break out with it vs 7.9% without
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Advanced charting stats
Route participation %65.3202517th of 39 TEsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for: the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks: nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Targets per route run0.17202518th of 37 TEsSeparates volume from opportunity: are targets earned per route, or just a product of snaps?Source: Targets ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Yards per route run1.47202512th of 37 TEsThe single most stable WR efficiency stat; elite breakouts cross ~2.0.Source: Receiving yards ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Average depth of target9.9020253rd of 38 TEsHow far downfield the targets come: role definition (deep vs underneath).Source: Mean air yards per target: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Air-yards share19.420253rd of 38 TEsShare of the team's downfield passing intent aimed at this player.Source: His air yards ÷ his team's air yards: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate49.1202511th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel: expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel: nflverse participation, 2025
Zone coverage rate faced72.320256th of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced: nflverse participation, 2025
Red-zone target share22.420258th of 38 TEsThe touchdown-equity signal a breakout usually needs.Source: Targets inside the 20 ÷ team red-zone targets: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
YAC over expected0.8020259th of 27 TEsPlaymaking after the catch beyond what the target's location predicts.Source: Yards after catch minus expected YAC: Next Gen Stats (nflverse), 2025
Offensive line rank220252nd of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season
Pass protection rank13202513th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season
Line rank, 2026 projected520265th of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best): opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections: a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.1220259th of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets30.3202513th of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster: nflverse
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Season by season
| Season | Targets/g | Target share | Rec yds/g | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.1 | 11.8% | 44.6 | 6 |