Week 8 projection
13.4
Half PPR, Sleeper
Week 8 matchup
vs IND · Favorable · #10/32
Rest of season projection
134
Half PPR, Sleeper · RB16, #62 overall
Trade value
4,023
Redraft, RB14 · Dynasty 3,357

Trade value is FantasyCalc's 12-team, 1-QB, half PPR market. Projections and matchups are this week's, from Sleeper.

REDRAFT TRADE VALUE OVER TIME
3,750+55 (+1.5%)
Since Oct 22
Oct 22
SCHEME MATCHUP · VS IND

How Bhayshul Tuten scores against each defensive look

His points per play in each look, and how often IND shows it. Green means IND's mix helps him and red means it hurts, against an average defense.

IND blitzes 21% of pass plays, league 32%
Rushinghalf PPR points per carry, 2025–26 seasonhelps him+18%
IND shows
He scores per carry
LookIND showsLeagueEffect
Light box104 carries29% 202655%+9%
Base box57 carries60% 202636%+6%
Stacked box16 carries11% 20269%+3%

At IND's mix his rates work out to 0.74 pts per carry, against 0.63 at the league's mix.

Coverage is 2025, from nflverse participation data published after the season. Boxes and blitzes are this season's, from FTN charting.

Breakout Lab

Built from his 2025 season and draft profile. Games played in 2026 don't change it.

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Breakout checklist

1/5 must-haves · 0/4 boosters
  • Must-haves 1/5
  • Boosters 0/4
Requirements: the must-haves
✗Age 24 or younger24.6 vs <=242025RB production peaks early; younger backs carry more tread and upside. · 12.6% break out with it vs 8.1% without
✗Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)104 vs <=1002025Draft capital predicts workload share and goal-line trust. · 17.7% break out with it vs 8.1% without
✗Touches ≥ 10 / game6.2 vs >=102025Volume is king for RB scoring, and 10 touches a game is where the breakout rate jumps. · 25.2% break out with it vs 5.5% without
✗Yards per carry ≥ 4.33.7 vs >=4.32025Efficiency at/above league average keeps a back in the game-plan. · 10.4% break out with it vs 9.4% without
✓Depth chart: the real RB1 entering the season1 vs >=12026A back who isn't even his own team's projected lead back entering the season starts from behind on touches no matter what last season's stats say: this is forward-looking projected-role context none of this rule set's other, backward-looking production stats can see. · 12% break out with it vs 7.4% without
Boosters: what raises the ceiling
✗Passing-down role: ≥ 3.5 targets / game0.9 vs >=3.52025Receiving work is the PPR difference-maker and insulates volume in game scripts. · 17.7% break out with it vs 8.9% without
✗Goal-line role: ≥ 50% of team RZ carries24.2 vs >=502025Goal-line work is what drives RB touchdown totals. · 37% break out with it vs 8.8% without
✗Pass protection: line top-1018 vs <=102025Pass protection, not run blocking, is the half of line play that shows up in a back's scoring: it keeps him on the field for passing downs and keeps the offense ahead of the chains. · 11.5% break out with it vs 9% without
✗Forced-missed-tackle rate ≥ 8.5%6.5 vs >=8.52025Broken tackles measure yardage a back creates independent of blocking. · 9.2% break out with it vs 8.3% without
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Advanced charting stats

Route participation %16.2202549th of 65 RBsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for: the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks: nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Targets per route run0.13202532nd of 55 RBsSeparates volume from opportunity: are targets earned per route, or just a product of snaps?Source: Targets ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Yards per route run0.72202534th of 55 RBsThe single most stable WR efficiency stat; elite breakouts cross ~2.0.Source: Receiving yards ÷ routes run (min 50 routes): nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Average depth of target0.60202517th of 64 RBsHow far downfield the targets come: role definition (deep vs underneath).Source: Mean air yards per target: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Air-yards share0.20202521st of 64 RBsShare of the team's downfield passing intent aimed at this player.Source: His air yards ÷ his team's air yards: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate34.3202531st of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel: expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel: nflverse participation, 2025
Zone coverage rate faced72.120257th of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced: nflverse participation, 2025
Red-zone target share2.10202545th of 64 RBsThe touchdown-equity signal a breakout usually needs.Source: Targets inside the 20 ÷ team red-zone targets: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Offensive line rank23202523rd of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season
Pass protection rank18202518th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season
Line rank, 2026 projected23202623rd of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best): opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections: a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.08202511th of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback: nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets27.4202517th of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster: nflverse
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Season by season

SeasonTouches/gRush yds/gTargets/gRec yds/gTotal TD
20256.220.50.95.37