DEN · 3 NFL seasons played, entering year 4 · drafted 2023 · ADP 299
15
breakout grade, out of 100
Breakout thesis
ADP 299 (2026) — RB, DEN. Auto-generated from the top-400 pool; grade reflects the rules only.
Sleeper ADP + nflverse (real 2023–25)
Breakout checklist 1/6 must-haves · 1/5 boosters
Requirements — the must-haves
✗Age 24 or younger26 vs <=242025RB production peaks early; younger backs carry more tread and upside. · 19.2% break out with it vs 10.7% without
✗Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)262 vs <=1002025Draft capital predicts workload share and goal-line trust. · 22% break out with it vs 11.1% without
✗Snap share ≥ 40%16 vs >=402025Three-down usage is the biggest RB breakout prerequisite, and 40% of snaps is where the jump shows up. A pre-breakout back almost never clears the 65% a starter posts. · 18.6% break out with it vs 10.6% without
✗Touches ≥ 10 / game5.1 vs >=102025Volume is king for RB scoring, and 10 touches a game is where the breakout rate jumps. · 28.7% break out with it vs 8.3% without
✗Backfield share ≥ 35%9.6 vs >=352025A breakout back has to be the primary option, not the third man in a committee. · 24.8% break out with it vs 10% without
✓Yards per carry ≥ 4.35.1 vs >=4.32025Efficiency at/above league average keeps a back in the game-plan. · 12.5% break out with it vs 14.4% without
Boosters — what raises the ceiling
✗Passing-down role — ≥ 3.5 targets / game0.8 vs >=3.52025Receiving work is the PPR difference-maker and insulates volume in game scripts. · 23.1% break out with it vs 12.6% without
✗Route participation ≥ 40%5.8 vs >=402025On the field for passing downs = a true every-down back. · 16% break out with it vs 9.1% without
✗Goal-line role — ≥ 50% of team RZ carries4.8 vs >=502025Goal-line work is what drives RB touchdown totals.
✓Pass protection — line top-103 vs <=102025Pass protection, not run blocking, is the half of line play that shows up in a back's scoring — it keeps him on the field for passing downs and keeps the offense ahead of the chains. · 17.3% break out with it vs 11.5% without
✗Forced-missed-tackle rate ≥ 22%7.3 vs >=222025Broken tackles measure yardage a back creates independent of blocking.
Advanced charting stats
Route participation %5.80202558th of 65 RBsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for — the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks — nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Average depth of target-3.20202560th of 64 RBsHow far downfield the targets come — role definition (deep vs underneath).Source: Mean air yards per target — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Air-yards share-0.60202545th of 64 RBsShare of the team's downfield passing intent aimed at this player.Source: His air yards ÷ his team's air yards — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate39.10202525th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel — expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel — nflverse participation (offense_personnel), 2025
Zone coverage rate faced74.1020253rd of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced — nflverse participation (defense_man_zone_type), 2025
Red-zone target share0.00202561st of 64 RBsThe touchdown-equity signal a breakout usually needs.Source: Targets inside the 20 ÷ team red-zone targets — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Offensive line rank6.0020256th of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Pass protection rank3.0020253rd of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Line rank, 2026 projected1.0020261st of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best) — opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections (predict/data/ol_rankings.csv) — a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.11202510th of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets0.70202532nd of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster — nflverse load_rosters(2026)
