- Must-haves 1/3
- Boosters 2/7
Requirements: the must-haves
✓Rushing upside: ≥ 20 rush yds/game20.3 vs >=202024Designed QB rushing is the single biggest fantasy-QB differentiator; it raises both floor and ceiling. · 41.4% break out with it vs 13.8% without
✗Pass volume: ≥ 33 attempts/game19.7 vs >=332024Attempts compound into counting stats and TD chances. · 25.5% break out with it vs 16.1% without
✗Age 25 or younger26.8 vs <=252025The year-2/3 QB leap is real; younger arms have room to grow. · 28.8% break out with it vs 11.8% without
Boosters: what raises the ceiling
✗First-round pedigree (pick ≤ 32)140 vs <=322025Draft capital buys job security and a longer runway. · 21.5% break out with it vs 16.7% without
✗Pass-friendly / mobile-QB scheme (PROE ≥ 0)-2.4 vs >=02025A scheme that throws and uses the QB's legs multiplies output.
✓Two-plus reliable pass-catchers3 vs >=22025A QB can't break out without people to throw to. Reliable means a real role and a productive one, so a spread-out offense counts as well as one built around two stars.
?Downfield aggressiveness: average throw ≥ 7.5 yards—Pushing the ball downfield raises yardage and big-play scoring.
✗Goal-line rushing role: 2+ carries inside the 50 vs >=22025Designed short-yardage runs turn into rushing TDs.
✗Pass protection: line top-1016 vs <=102025Time in the pocket is what a line actually gives a quarterback. Sacks end drives, cost yardage, and cap the volume everything else is built on. · 28.9% break out with it vs 15.7% without
✓Line projected to improve: top-10 preseason rank2 vs <=102026A line that got hurt or was overhauled does not show up in last season's tape. This is the only scored rule built on outside analysts' opinion instead of something this site measured, which is why it carries half the weight of the measured pass-protection rule above. · 27.3% break out with it vs 14.8% without
