- Must-haves 3/7
- Boosters 4/7
Requirements: the must-haves
✗Breakout age: 24 or younger27.4 vs <=242025WR breakouts cluster by age 24; the fantasy age curve peaks early and falls fast after 27. · 7.3% break out with it vs 2.5% without
✗In the year-2 or year-3 window7 vs <=3202677.9% of WR breakouts happen by Year 3; Year 2 has the highest rate (~15%). · 6.4% break out with it vs 2.3% without
✓Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)17 vs <=1002025Draft pedigree predicts sustained opportunity and coaching trust. · 7.6% break out with it vs 1.7% without
✗Prior target share ≥ 20%17.9 vs >=202025~20% share is the rough floor for weekly WR2+ value. · 16% break out with it vs 2.5% without
✗Route participation ≥ 75%66.1 vs >=752025You can't break out off the field: on the field for 75%+ of dropbacks means full-time. · 9.6% break out with it vs 1.9% without
✓Yards per route run ≥ 1.82.4 vs >=1.82025YPRR is the most stable WR efficiency stat, and 1.8 separates the field. · 13.4% break out with it vs 2.1% without
✓Depth chart: a top-2 receiver entering the season1 vs >=12026A WR3 or worse entering the season is still fighting for targets, not banked on for them: same forward-looking role signal as the RB depth rule, cut at top-2 rather than top-1 since a real WR2 is still a startable role. · 3.3% break out with it vs 2.9% without
Boosters: what raises the ceiling
✗Target share trending up22.5 → 17.92024→2025A rising share signals an earned, growing role rather than noise.
✓Downfield role: aDOT ≥ 1112 vs >=112025A downfield role raises the weekly ceiling through big plays. · 4.9% break out with it vs 3.4% without
✓Air-yards share ≥ 25%28.5 vs >=252025Share of the team's downfield passing intent = who the offense actually throws to. · 17% break out with it vs 2.4% without
✗Red-zone target share ≥ 18%16.3 vs >=182025TD equity is what converts yards into startable fantasy scoring. · 12.3% break out with it vs 3.2% without
✓Average-or-better QB play0.2 vs >=02025WR production is hard-capped by quarterback play.
✓2-WR-set concentration (heavy personnel funnels targets)35.1 vs >=352025Heavy 12/21 personnel cuts perimeter competition and funnels target share to the clear No.1/2 WR (needs role clarity).
✗Pass-friendly scheme (PROE ≥ 0)-1.2 vs >=02025Pass rate over expectation lifts every pass-catcher's volume.
