ARI · 6 NFL seasons played, entering year 7 · drafted 2020 · ADP 291.5
38
breakout grade, out of 100
Breakout thesis
ADP 291.5 (2026) — WR, ARI. Auto-generated from the top-400 pool; grade reflects the rules only.
Sleeper ADP + nflverse (real 2023–25)
Breakout checklist 1/5 must-haves · 5/8 boosters
Requirements — the must-haves
✗Breakout age — 24 or younger29 vs <=242025WR breakouts cluster by age 24; the fantasy age curve peaks early and falls fast after 27. · 13.7% break out with it vs 4.8% without
✗In the year-2 or year-3 window7 vs <=3202677.9% of WR breakouts happen by Year 3; Year 2 has the highest rate (~15%). · 11.5% break out with it vs 4.7% without
✓Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)92 vs <=1002025Draft pedigree predicts sustained opportunity and coaching trust. · 13.1% break out with it vs 2.7% without
✗Prior target share ≥ 20%0.7 vs >=202025~20% share is the rough floor for weekly WR2+ value. · 23.7% break out with it vs 5.5% without
✗Route participation ≥ 75%3.4 vs >=752025You can't break out off the field — on the field for 75%+ of dropbacks means full-time. · 20.4% break out with it vs 3.2% without
?Yards per route run ≥ 1.8—YPRR is the most stable WR efficiency stat, and 1.8 separates the field. · 25.4% break out with it vs 4.7% without
Boosters — what raises the ceiling
✗Target share trending up2.7 → 0.72024→2025A rising share signals an earned, growing role rather than noise.
✓Downfield role — aDOT ≥ 1115 vs >=112025A downfield role raises the weekly ceiling through big plays.
✗Air-yards share ≥ 25%1.4 vs >=252025Share of the team's downfield passing intent = who the offense actually throws to.
✗Red-zone target share ≥ 18%1.2 vs >=182025TD equity is what converts yards into startable fantasy scoring.
✓Team vacated ≥ 20% of its targets100 vs >=202025Departed volume is the clearest path to a target bump.
✓Average-or-better QB play0 vs >=02025WR production is hard-capped by quarterback play.
✓2-WR-set concentration (heavy personnel funnels targets)55.2 vs >=352025Heavy 12/21 personnel cuts perimeter competition and funnels target share to the clear No.1/2 WR (needs role clarity).
✓Pass-friendly scheme (PROE ≥ 0)4.1 vs >=02025Pass rate over expectation lifts every pass-catcher's volume.
Advanced charting stats
Route participation %3.40202580th of 87 WRsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for — the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks — nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Average depth of target15.0020259th of 84 WRsHow far downfield the targets come — role definition (deep vs underneath).Source: Mean air yards per target — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Air-yards share1.40202581st of 84 WRsShare of the team's downfield passing intent aimed at this player.Source: His air yards ÷ his team's air yards — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate55.2020258th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel — expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel — nflverse participation (offense_personnel), 2025
Zone coverage rate faced72.0020258th of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced — nflverse participation (defense_man_zone_type), 2025
Red-zone target share1.20202579th of 84 WRsThe touchdown-equity signal a breakout usually needs.Source: Targets inside the 20 ÷ team red-zone targets — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Offensive line rank24.00202524th of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Pass protection rank24.00202524th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Line rank, 2026 projected25.00202625th of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best) — opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections (predict/data/ol_rankings.csv) — a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.02202520th of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets100.0020251st of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster — nflverse load_rosters(2026)
