ARI · 7 NFL seasons played, entering year 8 · drafted 2019 · ADP 363.2
24
breakout grade, out of 100
He has already broken out. His first top-12 season by points per game was 2020 (best finish: 12th at QB, 2020). A breakout is defined as a first such season, so the grade above is not a forecast for him — read it as how strongly his profile matches the one breakouts have.
Breakout thesis
ADP 363.2 (2026) — QB, ARI. Auto-generated from the top-400 pool; grade reflects the rules only.
Sleeper ADP + nflverse (real 2023–25)
Breakout checklist 0/3 must-haves · 2/7 boosters
Requirements — the must-haves
✗Rushing upside — ≥ 20 rush yds/game0.5 vs >=202025Designed QB rushing is the single biggest fantasy-QB differentiator; it raises both floor and ceiling. · 42.9% break out with it vs 15.3% without
✗Pass volume — ≥ 33 attempts/game3.3 vs >=332025Attempts compound into counting stats and TD chances. · 28.6% break out with it vs 15.5% without
✗Age 25 or younger30.3 vs <=252025The year-2/3 QB leap is real; younger arms have room to grow. · 28.1% break out with it vs 13.4% without
Boosters — what raises the ceiling
✗First-round pedigree (pick ≤ 32)178 vs <=322025Draft capital buys job security and a longer runway. · 20.3% break out with it vs 19.6% without
✓Pass-friendly / mobile-QB scheme (PROE ≥ 0)4.1 vs >=02025A scheme that throws and uses the QB's legs multiplies output.
✓Two-plus quality pass-catchers2 vs >=22025A QB can't break out without people to throw to.
?Downfield aggressiveness — average throw ≥ 7.5 yards—Pushing the ball downfield raises yardage and big-play scoring.
✗Goal-line rushing role — 2+ carries inside the 50 vs >=22025Designed short-yardage runs turn into rushing TDs.
✗Pass protection — line top-1024 vs <=102025Time in the pocket is what a line actually gives a quarterback. Sacks end drives, cost yardage, and cap the volume everything else is built on. · 32.4% break out with it vs 15.2% without
✗Line projected to improve — top-10 preseason rank25 vs <=102026A line that got hurt or was overhauled does not show up in last season's tape. This is the only scored rule built on outside analysts' opinion instead of something this site measured, which is why it carries half the weight of the measured pass-protection rule above. · 27.3% break out with it vs 15.7% without
Advanced charting stats
Route participation %2.00202536th of 36 QBsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for — the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks — nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate55.2020258th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel — expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel — nflverse participation (offense_personnel), 2025
Zone coverage rate faced72.0020258th of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced — nflverse participation (defense_man_zone_type), 2025
Offensive line rank24.00202524th of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Pass protection rank24.00202524th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Line rank, 2026 projected25.00202625th of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best) — opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections (predict/data/ol_rankings.csv) — a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.02202520th of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets100.0020251st of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster — nflverse load_rosters(2026)
