He has already broken out. His first top-12 season by points per game was 2019 (best finish: 5th at TE, 2022). A breakout is defined as a first such season, so the grade above is not a forecast for him — read it as how strongly his profile matches the one breakouts have.
Breakout thesis
ADP 119.2 (2026) — TE, PHI. Auto-generated from the top-400 pool; grade reflects the rules only.
Sleeper ADP + nflverse (real 2023–25)
Breakout checklist 2/4 must-haves · 2/4 boosters
Requirements — the must-haves
✓Year-3 (or later) breakout window9 vs >=32026TEs develop late — the year-3 leap is the classic TE breakout timing. · 8.4% break out with it vs 14.9% without
✗Age 26 or younger31.7 vs <=262025Still ascending; late-blooming but not aged out. · 13% break out with it vs 5.6% without
✗Target share ≥ 15%14.4 vs >=152025A 15%+ share is the usage floor for a startable TE1. · 24.4% break out with it vs 7.4% without
✓Route participation ≥ 55%78.8 vs >=552025A TE who runs routes instead of blocking is the prerequisite. Almost no tight end reaches a WR-level 75%, so 55% of dropbacks is the line where the breakout rate jumps. · 23.9% break out with it vs 4% without
Boosters — what raises the ceiling
✓Red-zone target share ≥ 18%26.6 vs >=182025TEs live on touchdowns; red-zone looks drive TE1 seasons.
✓Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)49 vs <=1002025Pedigree predicts the coaching investment a TE breakout needs. · 16.8% break out with it vs 6.3% without
✗Flex/seam role — aDOT ≥ 87.5 vs >=82025A move TE used down the seam beats an in-line blocker for fantasy.
✗Pass protection — line top-1016 vs <=102025A tight end who stays in to block does not run routes. Lines that hold up let him release, and give the quarterback time for the intermediate throws he lives on. · 13% break out with it vs 8.1% without
Advanced charting stats
Route participation %78.8020259th of 39 TEsShare of his team's dropbacks he was on the field for — the true denominator behind target share.Source: On the field for the dropback ÷ team dropbacks — nflverse participation joined to play-by-play, 2025
Targets per route run0.17202517th of 37 TEsSeparates volume from opportunity: are targets earned per route, or just a product of snaps?Source: Targets ÷ routes run (min 50 routes) — nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Yards per route run1.23202519th of 37 TEsThe single most stable WR efficiency stat; elite breakouts cross ~2.0.Source: Receiving yards ÷ routes run (min 50 routes) — nflverse participation + box score, 2025
Average depth of target7.50202510th of 38 TEsHow far downfield the targets come — role definition (deep vs underneath).Source: Mean air yards per target — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Air-yards share14.9020259th of 38 TEsShare of the team's downfield passing intent aimed at this player.Source: His air yards ÷ his team's air yards — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
2-WR-set (12/13) rate41.50202520th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel — expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel — nflverse participation (offense_personnel), 2025
Zone coverage rate faced64.10202527th of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced — nflverse participation (defense_man_zone_type), 2025
Red-zone target share26.6020256th of 38 TEsThe touchdown-equity signal a breakout usually needs.Source: Targets inside the 20 ÷ team red-zone targets — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
YAC over expected0.10202518th of 27 TEsPlaymaking after the catch beyond what the target's location predicts.Source: Yards after catch minus expected YAC — Next Gen Stats (nflverse load_nextgen_stats), 2025
Offensive line rank22.00202522nd of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Pass protection rank16.00202516th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Line rank, 2026 projected2.0020262nd of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best) — opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections (predict/data/ol_rankings.csv) — a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)0.07202514th of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets37.7020255th of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster — nflverse load_rosters(2026)
