CLE · 1 NFL season played, entering year 2 · drafted 2025 · ADP 300
33
breakout grade, out of 100
Breakout thesis
ADP 300 (2026) — WR, NA. Auto-generated from the top-400 pool; grade reflects the rules only.
Sleeper ADP + nflverse (real 2023–25)
Breakout checklist 1/2 must-haves · 1/8 boosters
Requirements — the must-haves
?Breakout age — 24 or younger—WR breakouts cluster by age 24; the fantasy age curve peaks early and falls fast after 27. · 13.7% break out with it vs 4.8% without
✓In the year-2 or year-3 window2 vs <=3202677.9% of WR breakouts happen by Year 3; Year 2 has the highest rate (~15%). · 11.5% break out with it vs 4.7% without
?Day 1–2 draft capital (pick ≤ 100)—Draft pedigree predicts sustained opportunity and coaching trust. · 13.1% break out with it vs 2.7% without
✗Prior target share ≥ 20%1.8 vs >=202023~20% share is the rough floor for weekly WR2+ value. · 23.7% break out with it vs 5.5% without
?Route participation ≥ 75%—You can't break out off the field — on the field for 75%+ of dropbacks means full-time. · 20.4% break out with it vs 3.2% without
?Yards per route run ≥ 1.8—YPRR is the most stable WR efficiency stat, and 1.8 separates the field. · 25.4% break out with it vs 4.7% without
Boosters — what raises the ceiling
?Target share trending upneed 2+ seasonsA rising share signals an earned, growing role rather than noise.
?Downfield role — aDOT ≥ 11—A downfield role raises the weekly ceiling through big plays.
?Air-yards share ≥ 25%—Share of the team's downfield passing intent = who the offense actually throws to.
?Red-zone target share ≥ 18%—TD equity is what converts yards into startable fantasy scoring.
✗Team vacated ≥ 20% of its targets17.8 vs >=202025Departed volume is the clearest path to a target bump.
✗Average-or-better QB play-0.3 vs >=02025WR production is hard-capped by quarterback play.
✓2-WR-set concentration (heavy personnel funnels targets)56.5 vs >=352025Heavy 12/21 personnel cuts perimeter competition and funnels target share to the clear No.1/2 WR (needs role clarity).
✗Pass-friendly scheme (PROE ≥ 0)-4.2 vs >=02025Pass rate over expectation lifts every pass-catcher's volume.
Advanced charting stats
2-WR-set (12/13) rate56.5020256th of 32 teamsHow often the offense plays heavy personnel — expands or shrinks a WR's route tree.Source: Snaps in 12/21 personnel — nflverse participation (offense_personnel), 2025
Zone coverage rate faced64.20202526th of 32 teamsZone vs man tendencies of the schedule; changes who wins targets and YAC.Source: Zone coverage snaps faced — nflverse participation (defense_man_zone_type), 2025
Offensive line rank31.00202531st of 32 teamsMeasured 2025 line quality (1 = best), pass protection and run blocking combined.Source: Measured 2025 line grade: sack rate and pressure rate allowed, stuffed-run rate and rush yards before contact, each z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Pass protection rank29.00202529th of 32 teamsSacks and pressures allowed (1 = best). This is the half of line play that moves fantasy scoring.Source: Measured 2025 pass protection: sack rate allowed (nflverse play-by-play) and pressure rate allowed (PFR charting), z-scored within the season (predict/data/oline_data.R)
Line rank, 2026 projected32.00202632nd of 32 teamsWhere published projections expect this line to finish (1 = best) — opinion, not measurement, and it does not feed the breakout score.Source: Consensus of the PFF and Sharp Football Analysis 2026 offensive line projections (predict/data/ol_rankings.csv) — a forecast, shown for context beside the measured rank
QB quality (EPA/play)-0.25202532nd of 32 teamsHow much the team's quarterback added per dropback in 2025.Source: Team EPA per dropback — nflverse play-by-play, 2025
Vacated targets17.80202523rd of 32 teamsShare of the team's 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the roster.Source: 2025 targets belonging to players no longer on the 2026 roster — nflverse load_rosters(2026)
